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Institute for Computing Systems Architecture

INAUGURAL LECTURE

Professor Gordon Brebner

Chair of Computer Systems

"Tomorrow's Computers: Less Hard and More Soft"

5.15 pm, Thursday 13 January 2000

Lecture Theatre 183, Old College, South Bridge, Edinburgh

Abstract

The electronic computer bestrode the world stage in the second half of the 20th century, moving from a status in 1943 when the president of IBM predicted that "there is a world market for about five computers" to a status in 1999 when, for example, 30% of UK households had home computers. Over this period, the cost, size, weight and power consumption of computers shrank dramatically, while their speed and storage capacity expanded equally dramatically. However, architecturally, the typical computer of 1999 is not radically different from a computer of 1949. The situation is set to change in the near future. This lecture explores what is in prospect, both for the computer user and for the computer architect. One question raised is whether the term "computer" itself will continue to be apt.

For the computer user, the terms "hard" and "soft" here have meanings related to usability. Undoubtedly, computers became more user-friendly over the past 50 years, as the user community broadened from technical specialists to the general public. However, they are still relatively hard to master. One consequence is that "IT" is perceived as a free-standing topic in the school curriculum, rather than just as a background aid to learning. The hardness stems from the generality, hence complexity, of current computers, which in turn stems from the fact that most people only have at most one computer to use. This fact is set to change soon, as computers become pervasive commodities, not visibly, but hidden within specialised appliances. In this way, computers will become soft on their users, by just adding background value to everyday activities. The mobile telephone, digital television and games console are forerunners, and smart domestic and workplace appliances are imminent. Elimination of cabling, replaced by wireless communication between computers and by scavenging for electric power, will enhance the hidden nature of the computer, which will be able to collaborate invisibly with other computers, locally or globally.

For the computer architect, the terms "hard" and "soft" here have more physical meanings. Historically, the hardware of a computer has been the part that can be touched, usually electronic circuitry that implements a machine capable of obeying simple, general-purpose instructions. The software has been the intangible, flexible part, comprising particular programs of instructions to be obeyed by the hardware in order to carry out specific functions for a user's current needs. This traditional separation is now increasingly blurred, an effect catalysed in part by advances in silicon chip technology that allow not only a huge number of tiny communicating computational entities to co-exist on one chip, but a range of differing types of entity - electronic, mechanical, photonic. Decreasing hardness, that is, reduction in the amount of function fixed at the time of physical manufacture, means computers better equipped to be adaptive to their working environments, which includes their users and collaborating computers. So, perhaps unexpectedly, architects will design more flexible and general computers, but these will be presented to their users hidden within a range of less flexible and more specific appliances.


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